Stock Market Rally Is Tempting… Don’t Be A Sucker!

It’s July 15th, 2009 and the stock market soared today with the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ all up with gains in the 3% to 3.5% range for the day. Not bad, huh?

But can the earnings from just ONE company – Intel – really be all that important? Is the market so hungry for any good news that it makes a feast out of what should be an appetizer? Let’s take a look at some non-emotional indicators to see what’s really going on here.

Look at a chart of the Dow over the last three months with the 50/200 Simple Moving Averages and you’ll see a “Golden Cross” on July 6th, with the Index closing at 8,324.87. If this is your  of choice, then here was your first signal to get back in the market since way back in January of 2008, when the “Death Cross” warned you to get out around the 13,000 area.

However, any of you that have worked with the most commonly used Golden Cross / Death Cross moving averages are well aware of the sometimes ‘false’ signals they can throw off.

So let’s look a little closer at this “BUY” signal which would have, by the way, had you firmly entrenched in the market for today’s big run up. If this is all you were considering, you’d be in and happy. There is more than meets the eye here.  Take a peek at the 13 day moving average of volume, and you’ll see a steadily declining number over the last month.

This is not pretty.

When I go to check my proprietary “Red/White/Blue” chart, I don’t see anything near a buy signal yet. Here’s what it looked like as of yesterday:

As those of you who’ve been following this for a while know, it’s pretty simple:

We want to see the Red line over the White line, and we want to see the White line over the Blue line. Then we see “Red, White & Blue” in the correct order for a confirmed uptrend.

It ain’t there yet, regardless of Intel’s good numbers and the market’s strong push up today.

Don’t be suckered in.

Stay on the sidelines just like you have since Red, White & Blue told us to get out of the market in November of 2007.  Maybe this is turning into an uptrend. But, then again, maybe Red, White & Blue is still keeping us on track and helping us to avoid – once again – getting tempted in too early and getting caught in a sucker’s market.

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